Социальное объявление развития (english) - (реферат)

Societal [from societas (in Greek) – common] –term proposed in 1903 by sociologist A. Keller for description of the organizational aspects of the life of a society; it is used in the interpretation of social relations inherent in historically formed communities– nation, ethnos, class, social group, society on the whole – rather than artificially created ones. The synonym of the term “societal” is the notion “system-wide” [123 Afonin E.  A. Development of Ukraine: Macrosocial approach [in Ukrainian] // Viche. – 1996. – No. 1. – P. 55. ]. Societal index –qualitative and quantitative characteristic of societal properties, states, and processes. The corresponding indices are a result of an empiric sociological study and perform the instrumental-methodological function with the purpose of verification of a hypothesis.

Societal process –sequential regular change of societal properties and states in the course of the historical development of nations, regions, civilizations. `The varieties of societal processes are identification, investment, marginalization, deviation, individuation [124 Sociology: Brief encyclopedic dictionary [in Ukrainian]. – Kyiv, 1998. – P. 438. ]. Societal properties –system of qualitative and quantitative characteristics of societal psychics. Having been expressed through the scales of binary oppositions, this system is formed by six couples of properties. The first– extroversion/introversion. Extroversion –the society is open for a dialog, is less traditional, intends to well look before others, is dynamic, is capable to assimilate large territories. Introversion–closed society, most comfortably feels itself on the own territory, alters itself but not a situation. The second pair of properties (rationality/irrationality) predestines behavioral priorities of the society–intellect or intuition. The third pair of properties (emotionality/pragmatism) characterizes the specificity of forms of a reaction–by basing on emotional-perceptible processes or on intellectual (cognitive) ones. The fourth pair (sensority/intuitivism) characterizes the aspiration to“earthly values” or to “abstract ideals”. The fifth pair (externality/internality) characterizes potentialities from the viewpoint of self-definition. Eventually, the sixth pair of properties: intentionality/executivity. Intentionality is a quality characterizing the external activity of a subject. The signs of intentionality: will, self-sufficiency, organizational exactness. Executivity–property characterizing the dependence of a subject on external circumstances. Signs: slowness of actions, reflectivity of thinking. Societal indices can be represented in the form of the corresponding binary scales-oppositions, each of which is asymmetrically balanced in a stably functioning society with a prevalence of one of the parts of a binary opposition. In a transient state of the society, these parts of the index can briefly (situationally) acquire the form of symmetry and take the values of half-and-half, which is the sign of an extremely unstable (nonequilibrium) state of the society. Ukraine encountered similar states during the so-called“constitutional crisis”(II quarter of 1995), at the final stage of adoption of the Constitution (II quarter of 1996), and during elections of the Verkhovna Rada of the 13th convocation (I quarter of 1998), which outwardly manifested in the form of crisis sharpening.

Societal states –three mutually transient states of a social object in the process of development: conventional state– the reply to a call is “yes”, correcting one – “no”, and chaotic one – “other”. Society –complex multidimensional formation which is qualitatively different from the nature, internally divided, and simultaneously organically integral. It exists as a totality of historically formed means and forms of interaction and consolidation of individuals and their groups, in which one observes an all-round multilevel interrelation of persons. In the narrowsense: a) diachronically or synchronically fixed social organism, b)relatively self-supporting, stable, and integral part of such an organism, c) common basis, “field”of intersection and stratification of individual actions of persons (A. Toynbee), d) correlate of a state (civil society), e) correlate of a community. From positions of the abstract philosophy, society is characterized as an all-embracing system limited by conditions of sociality and semantic communication and moving in the spatial dimensionality to a world-wide planetary formation. Sociology is studying a society through the prism of of social reality as a social system with a definite organization of its elements and structures [125 Sociology: Brief encyclopedic dictionary [in Ukrainian]. – Kyiv, 1998. – P. 620-622]. Socionics –science arising at the joint of sociology, psychology, and informatics, which considers the personality, group, and nation as carriers of a certain type of informational metabolism (exchange). They interact with each other on the basis of objective laws related to the mental sphere of the man. Jung grounded the existence of 8 psychological types and introduced the notion of“psychical function” into science. Developed conscious functions of some types of personality “charm”the same functions of other types, just those which are not developed and hided into the subconsciousness. Psychical function is an ability of the man with particular skill to investigate one of the aspects of the informational flow. Types of informational metabolism [126 Bukalov A.  V. , Boiko A.  G. Socionics: mystery of human relations and bioenergetics [in Russian]. – Kiev, 1992. ]. Irrational

    Intuitive
    Logical
    Extrovert
    Introvert
    Don Quixote
    Balzac
    Ethical
    Extrovert
    Introvert
    Huxley
    Esenin
    Sensorial
    Logical
    Extrovert
    Introvert
    Alexander Great
    J. Gaben
    Ethical
    Extrovert
    Introvert
    Caesar
    Dumas
    Rational
    Logical
    Intuitive
    Extrovert
    Introvert
    J. London
    Descartes
    Sensorial
    Extrovert
    Introvert
    Holmes
    Gorky
    Ethical
    Intuitive
    Extrovert
    Introvert
    Hamlet
    Dr. Watson
    Sensorial
    Extrovert
    Introvert
    Hugo
    Dreiser

Socium [from socium (in Latin) – common] –type of sociality existing as a stable community of persons, which is characterized by the unity of natural, social-productive, mental, etc. conditions of vital activity, genetic connection of generations, stability of a social organization, a certain level of culture. It reveals itself in the form of a society, large and small social groups. As a social reality, socium is an integral, self-organizing, vital, open system functioning due to the exchange of activity and information between individuals and communities. Production of material and mental goods is a means of existence of the socium rather than its goal. The historically appeared means of social organization is a form of solution of contradictions between individual and social bases [127 Sociology: Brief encyclopedic dictionary [in Ukrainian]. – Kyiv, 1998. – P. 585-586. ]. Solov’ev Vladimir Sergeevich (1853-1900) –Russian philosopher, a creator of the orthodox Christian philosophy, being anthropocentric by its character. The doctrine of God-mankind as a source of the revival of the world is used by Solov’ev for interpretation of the history of the mankind and problems of social life. In its development, the world passes the following stages: first (prior to the man)– evolution of the nature, second (human activity) –history. Since the lower level does not disappear but joins with the more perfect activity, evolution is the process of gathering the Universe but not only a process of development and improvement [128 Lossky N.  O. History of Russian philosophy [in Russian]. – Moscow, 1991. – P. 146-157. ].

Spengler O. (1880-1936) –German philosopher and historian, who conceptually connected ideas of development of culture and civilization. Culture is originated at the moment when the great soul awakes from the protospiritual state of the eternally infantile mankind, some face appears from the abyss of the featureless, something limited and coming from the infinity arises. Culture is flourishing on the soil of a strictly bounded landscape, to which it remains to be vegetatively bound. Culture dies when this soul realizes the full sum of its potentialities in the form of peoples, languages, dogmas, arts, states, sciences and, thus, again returns to the protospiritual element. If the purpose is reached and the idea along with all the completeness of internal possibilities is completed and realized outside, culture suddenly stiffens and die out, its blood coagulates, strengths are overtaxed–it become a civilization. In the materialistic comprehension, one believes that the laws of causal nature govern and the world history is filled by ideals of usefulness like enlightenment, humanity, peace over the world, which are denoted as aims of the history attainable with the help of progress. History is an eternal establishment and, hence, an eternal future; the nature is the appeared and. hence, the eternal past.

Stage –separate moment, interval of time in development of some movement, process, etc. [129 Brief dictionary of foreign words [in Russian]. – Moscow, 1979. – P. 347. ] Sztompka Piotr –contemporary Polish sociologist. He systematized main conceptions of development, which are briefly presented in his book“Sociology of social changes. – Moscow, 1996”. There, he gave the principal categories such as progress, social time, historical tradition and the most influental conceptions of historical development: classical evolutionism–idealistic conception of evolution of O. Comte; naturalistic conception of evolution of H. Spencer and materialistic conception ofevolution of L. Morgan; sociological conception of evolution of E. Durkheim; co-evolutionism in the cultural anthropology and sociology. There are presented the theories of modernization and historical cycles as specific conceptions of development along with the criticism of conceptions of development, in particular, a disproof of“historicism” of K. Popper. P. Szompka presents the own conception of historical development in the context of ideas as a historical force, activity of prominent persons as agents of changes, social movements as factors of social changes and revolutions as the peak of social changes. With the conception of A. Toffler, he grounds the refusal from the idea of progress with infinite number of the stages of growth, which was the basis for almost all theories of development in sociology in the XIX–XX centuries. Infinite industrial growth cannot be an actual purpose of the mankind. If to describe the historical development in terms of continuous wave motion, then the first and second waves are agrarian and industrial epochs, and the third is an attempt to create a new civilization with nonindustrial values based on the organic coalescence of nature and technique, which corresponds to direct needs of a single person.

The idea of progress as a purpose of development of the society is connected with development of the human psychics as a regular change of psychical processes in time, which is expressed in their quantitative, qualitative, and structural transformations. The development of psychics is characterized the irreversible character of changes, orientation (i. e. , ability to accumulation of changes, “building on”of new changes over previous ones) and their regular character. The development of psychics is realized in the form of phylogenesis (establishment of the structures of psychics in the course of biological evolution of a species or the sociocultural history of the mankind on the whole and its separate ethnic, social, and cultural groups) and in the form of ontogenesis (formation of psychical structures during the life of a single organism). To modernize –to change something in accordance with contemporary requirements and tastes, to renew [130 Brief dictionary of foreign words [in Russian]. – Moscow, 1979. – P. 175. ]. Toynbee A. J. (1889-1975) –English historian and sociologist. He advanced the conception of civilizational development, which has two degrees of continuity. One should distinguish continuity between sequential periods and phases in the history of the society and that as a connection of the very societies in time. Chapters of history of any single society remind sequential stages of the human experience. For example, the connection between one society and the other reminds relations between the parents and child. Civilizations develop due to a gust which leads them from a call through the reply to a further call: from differentiation through integration to a new differentiation. This process has no spatial coordinates because progress named growth presents a cumulative translational movement as mastering the external world and as the internal self-determination and self-organization. Growing civilizations differ from primitive societies by translational movement at the expense of the creative minority. Toynbee denied Spengler’s idea on that the development of a civilization can be compared with the development of an organism passing the phases of childhood, youth, maturity, and senility. To dogmatically assert that some term of existence is predestined to every society is the same that to demand that every play consist of the same amount of acts. The growth of a society is interrupted by a fracture as a consequence of the internal burst which implies the loss of the property of self-determination by the society. The governing minority creates a universal state, internal proletariat– ecumenical church, and external proletariat –groups of armed barbarians. In the history of decline of any civilization, one can find a rhythm of decay. The formation of an universal state is a symptom of social decay, and a next fracture will stimulate a final decay. Transformation –mutually stimulating changes of the models of social action, on the one hand, and functioning the social institutions related to a intentional purposeful effect of nominal establishments (formal norms, procedures, or rules), on the other hand.

Vector of social development. Vector is the segment of a straight line of definite length and direction, which represents some magnitude characterizing not only by a numerical value but also by a direction (e. g. , force, speed, etc. ) [131 Brief dictionary of foreign words [in Russian]. – Moscow, 1979. – P. 59. ]. In the context of the conception under study, it defines a direction of the social-historical development at nodal and cuspidal points. A nodal point is a synonym of the notion of attractor–limiting state such that, having reached it, the system cannot return to none of its previous states. A cuspidal point– synonym of the notion of bifurcation –corresponds to a branching of some old quality into a finite set of quite definite potentially new qualities. A vector can be conditionally“positive” directed to the side of progress or “negative”, which characterizes a “regressive”development. The definition of the vector of social-historical development is one of the methodological tools used in creation of a working hypothesis for development of epochal cycles [132 Bransky V. P. Social synergetics as a post-modernist philosophy of history [in Russian] // Obshchest. Nauki Sovrem. – 1999. – No. 6. – P. 117-127. ].

Vygotsky Leonid Semenovich (1896-1934) –soviet psychologist. He advanced a doctrine about development of psychic functions in the process of the mastering, mediated by intercourse, of cultural values by an individual. Cultural signs (first of all, signs of language) serve a kind of tools. By operating them, the subject can affect others and forms the own internal world, whose basic units are meanings (generalizations, cognitivecomponents of consciousness) and senses (affective-motivational components). Psychic functions given by nature (“natural”) are transformed into functions of the highest level of development (“cultural”). By originating in direct contacts of a child with adults, the highest functions then root themselves in his/her consciousness. On the basis of this idea, there appears a representation about“the zone of nearest development”concerning the difference in the level of difficulty of problems solved by a child without assistance (actual level of development) and that under guidance of adults. Only that education is efficient which“runs ahead” the development [133 Psychology. Dictionary [in Russian]. – Moscow, 1990. – P. 70. ].

    Instead of conclusion

The applied meaning of the presented conception is defined by the possibility of implementation of a social-historical prognosis. The problem of scientifically grounded prognostication, on the one hand, is very complex methodologically and, on the other hand, is also important both in political and social-economic contexts. A. Toynbee said: “The impossibility to define a final purpose of development implies the impossibility to exactly define a character of the very development” [134 Toynbee A. Comprehension of history [in Russian]. – Moscow, 1991. – P. 34. ]. As a methodological foundation of short-, middle-, and long-term prognoses, one can take the idea of formation of a universal epochal cycle. The use of this conception for futurological studies of the social-historical development at the global, regional, and national levels has certain peculiarities. However, first of all, we consider general regularities following from the proposed conception. It should be recognized that the largest methodological problem is created by a peculiar“migration”of the size of a subject under study. For example, assume that the influence of the subject“we”attains a maximum in the transient (co-evolutionary) phase of the epochal cycle as result of norms of“collectivistic moral”dominated in the previous involutionary period. Then, in the revolutionary phase of the cycle, the subject individualizes and the cohort of“ revolutionaries” becomes so mass that it exceeds the demand of the society for “shakers” of bases. In the involutionary period, the economy develops, as a rule, extensively at the expense of attraction of new irreplaceable resources. The evolutionary period of the cycle is defined by the tendency of intensive liberal development of the economy. The type of demographic reproduction also undergoes certain changes. For the involutionary period, it is characteristic the model defined by rather high rates of birth and mortality, and the traditional family occupies dominant social positions. But in the evolutionary period of the cycle, inversely, we observe that the tendency to a decrease in the levels of birth and mortality becomes defining. As a consequence, the society encounters the effect of“ageing” of the population. Egalitarian intrafamilial relations become stronger. Of course, the proposed hypothetical scheme-prognosis can be only an illustration rather than the definition of all possibilities of the method. For example, in the political sphere, we can only say about the main tendencies of the future. Beginning from the boundary of our era (the epoch of Christ), the leading contradiction of social development is that between“the forms of religious and scientific consciousness”. In this case, for countries of the West-European cultural area (modern advance-guard of the world-wide historical process), the dialectic overcoming of the mentioned contradiction occurred in the chronological frameworks of the epoch of Enlightenment. As for a new dialectic contradiction (“moral – right”), it was overcome in these countries during the epochs of Modern and Post-Modern. Completing this historical period, the countries of the West Europe and North America meet a new epoch, whose content will be the contradiction between political and ordinary consciousness. Somewhat“shifted”(from the viewpoint of the global analysis, by 100-150 years) becomes the situation for the countries of the Central and East Europe and Asia, for which the contents of the epoch of Post-Modern will be still actual in the first half of the XXI century.

The change of tendencies laid in the basis of the prognosis will require the introduction of proper corrections in time. On the whole, the depth and detailed elaboration of a prognosis depend on the degree of progress in social sciences.

We have already noted that, on the global level, one can identify the completion of the involutionary stage of the eighth (the fourth one from the Christmas) epochal cycle, which sums up, on the whole, the development of the industrial civilization and“leads”the world to active vital activity according to the tendencies of the evolutionary period of the epochal cycle. Moreover, if this situation is characteristic, to a full extent, of the countries of the Asian-Eurasian megaregion, then the main tendencies of development of countries belonging now to the advance-guard of the world-wide historical process consist in their approaching to conditions of the formation of a post-industrial (informational) civilization. By using mechanisms of the newest technologies, they stimulate the creation of a global economic system. At the same time, at the threshold of the XXI century, we have observed an increase in the global inequality between countries of the core and periphery of the new system [135 Arseenko A. G. Globalization: Main contents and social-economic and political consequences on the eve of the XXI century // Ukrainian society on the threshold of the third millennium [in Ukrainian]. – Kyiv, 1999. – P. 23-51. ].

Radical geopolitical changes in the 90s of the XX century transformed the system of international relations. After the disintegration of the USSR, the USA remained a single“universal”superstate and will conserve the dominant position approximately up to the middle of the XXI century. At the same time, by virtue of the development of new centers of force, a new anti-American block headed by Russia and China will be objectively formed. The international system, based on competition of many centers of force, stimulates numerous wars and generates nonstability. The perspective of an open conflict between forces of globalization (West-European enclave) and agents of localization–presented by the European nationalism in the XX century and Islamic fundamentalism in the XXI century– can cast the world civilization into the condition of “new barbarism”. This, probably, “corresponds”to the content of the transient (co-evolutionary) phase of the mankind and its final transition to the conclusive evolutionary period of the eighth (fourth) epochal cycle at the global level.

We expect different futurological fates for separate regions. For Eurasia, the tendency of completion of the formation of the“Great Europe from French Brest to Belorussian Brest becomes clear, though we do not exclude breakdowns in the process of European integration, in particular, those related to the problems of establishment of the common, external, and defensive policy of the European Community, to the fate of the common monetary unit“euro”, and to the redistribution of the economic power in the frameworks of the trans-Atlantic community. Of great importance is the fate of Russia for the future of Eurasia.

The strengthening of federative unity stabilizes a situation in the region. Asia is overcoming the consequence of the financial crisis in 1997. At the same time, the competition between China, new nuclear states of Pakistan and India, and Japan, which makes its geopolitical possibilities to be stronger by the military-political alliance with the USA, will become sharper. Simultaneously, the absence of the Asian system of safety increases the nonstability generated by long-term conflicts such as the interstate India-Pakistan conflict or ethno-religious contradictions destroying Indonesia. Political contradictions can stop the tendency to the Asian economic integration, which will affect the plans of creation of the Asian-Pacific free trade zone till 2025. Being in the gloom of poverty and local regional conflicts, Africa has hypothetical chances in the system of the global economy. Dangerous becomes the tendency of ethno-political conflicts breaking Somali and Zaire and destabilizing the situation in the region of Great Lakes. A further growth of the population can turn into a regional demographic catastrophe. By developing integrational structures of the North-American free trade zone (NAFTA), North America gradually realizes the economic expansion into South America with the purpose to create the zone of free trade from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego. Democratization of the power in the countries of Latin America creates a common political field of both Americas. It is a further approaching of North and South America that will become a tendency of the next stage of the regional epochal cycle.

We note that the tendencies of social-historical development at the global and regional levels properly affect the national level of development. Moreover, the lower the hierarchical level of an“element”of the unit social system of the mankind, the stronger becomes the desynchronization of development, defined by own peculiarities. After a withdrawal from the transformational crisis (2000-2012), Ukraine is fated, on the whole, to repeat the historical experience of West European countries and countries of North America of the post-war period but with own sociocultural peculiarities. It is expected that Ukraine will“arrive at”the revolutionary phase of the new epochal cycle in the second half of the XXI century.

From the time of disintegration of the USSR, Russia as well as Ukraine is in the stage of the transformational crisis (co-evolutionary phase of the epochal cycle). In this case, the probability of conservation of the historical“inertia”to the unification of Russia, Ukraine, and Belorussia by type of the European Union remains high. The conservation of uncertainty concerning the reformation of the federal structure (the fate of Russia-Belorussia union, definition of the status of Chechnya and other regions) of Russia stimulates the regional stress breaking the orthodox-moslem consensus.

Contrary to Ukraine and Russia, Belorussia is, in essence, in the revolutionary phase opening a new epochal cycle of development. In the behavior of the contemporary administration of Belorussia, we see rather expressive“revolutionary”features. In our opinion, one can say that processes and phases of development, which are opposite in orientation, occur in Belorussia, on the one hand, and in Russia and Ukraine, on the other hand. By using the symbolic language of N. Rerikh we may assume that Belorussia will become, probably, a peculiar“connective tissue” between three east-Slavonic peoples. As for the leading states of the European Community, we note that France is completing the evolutionary stage of the cycle beginning from student disturbances in 1968. The identification of the national interests with imperatives dictated by the European Community remains problematic for this country. The main tendencies of the further social-historical development of France will be defined by the elections of President and Parliament in 2002. With the accession to power of the red-green coalition and after the national unification, stimulating the process of Integration of Europe, Germany approaches, in fact, to the revolutionary phase of a new epochal cycle. The first symptoms are a possible restructurization of the political system of the country which is related to the scandal concerning the financing of parties. We clearly observe the tendency of gradual disappearance of traditional political parties of the industrial epoch and the objective formation of parties of a“new type” as a consequence of new post-industrial values of the time of “Internet”. In Great Britain, the victory of the Labour Party in elections in 1997 marked the beginning of the final phase of the evolutionary stage of a new epochal cycle. This phase of development will be brought nearer by growing tendencies to the transfer of powers from the center to places (restoration of assemblies in Scotland, Welsh, and North Ireland). In this case, of importance is the geographical and economic closeness to Europe (launch of the tunnel under the Channel, intention to carry out the referendum on joining the European Monetary Union, etc. ). Italy is also on the threshold of the revolutionary stage of development. One may expect the sharpening of contradictions between the rich North and poor South, which finds itself at the center of ways of illegal migration to Europe. The threat comes from the geographical proximity of Italy to conflict zones in Balkan Peninsula, Near-East, and North Africa. Vatican finds itself in front of the choice between the weakening of positions of the Catholic Church and attempts to join all existing orthodox confessions under the roof of the universal church, which will be one of the signs of approaching“the end of times” according to the system of esoteric knowledge. Being characterized by the Confucian tradition and peculiarities of longer epochal cycles on the boundary of the XXI century, China is“flowing”in transformational processes (1978-? ) of the co-evolutionary transient period and, without any doubt, will become one of the world“centers of force”(by Brzezinski). With the appearance of the Celestial Empire on these positions, there appears a possibility to solve the problem of Taiwan on new principles of the unification of countries with coinciding vectors of social development.

India along with China (with some delay) goes on the way of the co-evolutionary stage of development of the epochal cycle. This phase of development comprises the search for an agreement between moslems and hinduists with the purpose to conserve the unity of the country. The solution of this problem allows India following China to become one of the regional leaders, pretending to the influence both in South Asia and in the whole world, in the subsequent evolutionary period.

The situation in Japan approaches to the co-evolutionary stage of the epochal cycle by actualizing the synthesis of traditional and post-modernist values. It is seen that its content will be a transformation of the society, which is still industrial in its essence though comparatively more developed than in other industrial states. Possessing shorter cycles of development as compared with China and India, Japan is“doomed”, respectively, on a more radical manifestation of transformational processes. As for the last, we note the high probability of nonpredictability of events and noncontrollability of the transient situation in many respects. The USA are on the threshold of the revolutionary phase of a new epochal cycle. A mechanism of these historical changes can be“launched”in the nearest period of 2000-2002 (the period of maximum solar activity). It is obvious that, in the first quarter of the XXI century like in the time of the“Great Depression”, the USA are in prospect to be the leader of a new epoch and to open a new experience of the policy, eventually having“finished” with the traditional practice of a party-class paradigm, for the whole world. In fact, already in the midst of the second half of the XX century with the active participation of the USA, the preconditions for such a policy were developed, the UNO being a possible precursor of the new world government. These preconditions strengthen the current tendencies to globalization of the economic development of the world.

A probable economic decline in the period of a revolutionary crisis will be compensated to a great extent due to prosperity of the economy in the 90s of the XX century and the contemporary level of the world financial control from the side of the USA. In this case, whereas nothing threatens the leadership of the country in the technological sphere, the probability of a decrease of its political influence is rather high. Indeed, the nation has already no wish to pay by lives of its soldiers for victories in local wars. At the expense of a growth of the amount of Afro-Americans, Spanish-Americans (immigrants from countries of South America), and Asian-Americans, the ethnic structure of the population of the USA will radically change in the first half of the XXI century. The situation will promote a growth of racist extremism and failures in the operation of the ethnocultural“melting crucible”. In this case, it is rather probable that the “two-party”political mechanism will be broken. This can be stimulated by a possible splitting in the financial oligarchy, whose fractions can be oriented either to the conservation of workplaces in the USA or to the export of capital, which is formalized in the external strategical policy of isolation or expansion. The basis of the arising situation in the country will be formed by the new global contradiction of social development, the contradiction between the political and ordinary consciousnesses.

The verification of the working hypothesis with empiric data will allow one to refine the foreseen tendencies.

    Appendices
    Appendix 1
    THEME OF THE PUBLIC LECTURE
    PRESENTED BY DOCTOR OF SOCIOLOGICAL SCIENCES E. A. AFONIN
    AT V. I. VERNADSKY NATIONAL LIBRARY
    ON OCTOBER 22, 1998
    THEME OF THE LECTURE: “SOCIAL RELATIVISM OR
    SOCIOLOGY OF THE TRANSIENT TIME OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT”
    1. CYCLICITY OF NATURE AND NATURAL PROCESSES

1. 1. Cycles “cosmic”, “biological”, “social” (by the terminology of P. Sorokin).

1. 2. Cycles of development of a personality in ontogenesis (by the generalization of D. Feldshtein)

    1. 3. Experimental confirmation of the hypothesis of
    evolutionary changes of “sociopsychotype” (on materials of
    the complex of sociological and social-psychological
    studies performed at the system of bodies of the State

Safety of the USSR in the second half of the 80s and during elections in 1994 and 1998 in Ukraine).

1. 4. Epochal social-historical cycle (author’s conception). 2. PROBLEM OF MACRO (INTEGRAL) INDICES IN SOCIOLOGY

    2. 1. Principle of L. Pasteur – P. Curie.

2. 2. Societal processes, states, features. Societal indices (by O. Donchenko).

    2. 3. Statistical effects of “demographical transition”.

2. 4. Methods of mathematical statistics and their use in social studies during the transient time of social development.

3. SPECIFIC SOCIOLOGICAL (MONITORING) STUDIES IN UKRAINE: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS (UKRAINE, RUSSIA, AND BELORUSSIA)

4. FACTOR OF SOLAR ACTIVITY AND ITS INFLUENCE ON SOCIAL-HISTORICAL PROCESSES. IS A SOCIAL BURST PROBABLE

    IN UKRAINE ?
    5. APPLIED ASPECTS OF THE NEW APPROACH.
    Appendix 2
    TEXT OF THE INFORMATION EXTENDED DURING THE WORK
    OF THE 65TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL
    FEDERATION OF LIBRARIAN ASSOCIATIONS
    (IFLA 99, BANGKOK, THAILAND)
    AND THE ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF
    CORRESPONDENTS OF THE EUROPEAN CENTER OF PARLIAMENT
    STUDIES AND DOCUMENTATION
    (ECPRD-CORRESPONDENTS
    CONFERENCE, BERN, SWITZERLAND)
    Dear colleagues !

The group of scientists, representatives of nongovernmental nonprofit organizations such as the Ukrainian Social Innovation Society, Atlantic Council of Ukraine, and Librarian Department of the Ukrainian Parliament, has begun the initiative study in the context of the sociology of history, which covers the period of two millennia (AD).

    PROJECT IS CONDITIONED BY:
    * globalization of transformational processes;

* objectivity, irreversibility and cardinal character of current social changes;

* noncorrespondence of the existing ideas to new conditions of social development;

    * growth of danders which acquire extreme forms during the
    the transient period;

* decrease in efficiency of the activity of global, regional, political, economic, and other international and national

    institutions.

Now once again, we are faced with the urgent need to basically reinterpret the historical development, to introduce corrections to the existing ideas as for a periodization of the history, and to create efficient prognostic models of social development. Motives to the realization of these urgent needs become, in fact, the basis of our research initiative.

MAIN AIMof the basic stage of the research project is the development of an applied model of“universal epochal cycle”as a means of social analysis and prognostication. A further work on the project will be open and interdisciplinary due to the wide participation of experts in the fields of political science, economy, right, psychology, ethnology, studies of religion. language, arts, etc.

RESEARCH PLANSwill be carried out on a wide historical material, which represents 50 countries of the world community chosen by geographical, cultural-religious, and demographical signs. The sampling includes 20 countries of Europe, 15 of Asia, 3 of North America, 4 of Latin America, and Australia. The research plan foresees the use of modern methodologies, methods, and technologies. In particular, theuse of Internet will be aimed at: * telecommunication of participants;

    * publication of running results of the study;
    * diagnostics, etc.

GUARANTEES OF SUCCESSFULNESS OF THE PROJECTare ensured by the available methodological and methodical tools mastered by our group, which allow one to obtain a number of weighty applied results including those concerning the optimization of national budget social expenditures, international cooperation, and collective safety. ***

Dear colleagues, I hope for the constructive dialog and support of our research project.

    Sincerely,
    Doctor of Sociol. Sci. Eduard Afonin
    Supervisor of the project,
    Head of Information and Library Department
    of Secretariat of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine,
    President of Ukrainian Social Innovation Society
    Address:
    Eduard Afonin
    Head of Information and Library Department
    of Secretariat of Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine,
    3, Sadova Str. , Kyiv-8, 01008
    tel/fax: (380 44) 226-2145
    e-mail: afonin@rada. gov. ua
    Appendix 3
    RECORD OF THE MEETING OF THE WORKING GROUP OF THE
    PROJECT, DEVOTED TO DISCUSSION OF THE BASIC HISTORICAL
    SOCIOLOGICAL CONCEPTION “SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT AD”.
    RECORD NO. 1
    OF THE MEETING OF THE WORKING GROUP OF THE PROJECT
    “SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT AD”
    KYIV SEPTEMBER 10, 1999

THERE WERE PRESENT: Afonin E.  A. , Dr. Soc. Sci. , President of the Ukrainian Social Innovation Society (USIS); Bandurka O.  M. , Dr. Jur. Sci. , Rector of the University of Internal Affairs (Kharkiv); Kokoshyns’kyiO. A. , Vice-President of the Atlantic Council of Ukraine; Malyshko M.  I. , Cand. Jur. Sci. , Prof. , Head of Chair of the Kyiv National University of Culture and Arts; Martynov A. Yu. , Cand. Hist. Sci. , researcher of the Institute of History of the NAS of Ukraine; Ryabiko V.  V. , Ass. Prof. , Vice-President of USIS; Salamatov V.  O. , Cand. Psych. Sci. , Head of Depart. of the Academy of State Management at President of Ukraine; Chechnev B.  O. , Cand. Phil. Sci. , Resp. Secr. of the All-Ukrainian weekly magazine “Zakon i Biznes” (Law and Business). AGENDA

1.  Introductory word about the idea and organization of the interdisciplinary project (IP)“Social development AD”

    Speaker – Afonin E.  A.

2.  On the conception of IP “Social development AD as an object of the sociology of history (sociology of social changes)”.

    Speaker – Martynov A.  Yu.
    HEARD:

1.  Introductory word “About the idea and organization of IP “Social development AD”. Afonin E.  A. presented main positions of the proposed IP “Social development A. D. ”. In particular, he noted that the idea of IP was maturing during the last decade, which was marked by radical and mostly unpredictable changes such as, e. g. :“downfall of the Berlin wall”, “disintegration of the USSR”and economic decline of countries-republics of the former USSR, economic jump of South-Asian“tigers”, etc.

The first conceptual presentation of the project idea was given by the author in the final (applied) part of the scientific report“Social relativism or sociology of the transient time of social development” made at V. I. Vernadsky National Library of the NAS of Ukraine on October 22, 1998. The main idea of the project is such that, on the basis of ideas on cyclicity of the social development, there appears a reliable instrumental possibility to reconstruct the objective logic of principal historical changes associated with such events as“revolutions”, “transformatons”, state overturns, various manifestations of the element of social protest, numerous civil conflicts, local and global wars, etc. The last fall in the so-called transient conditions of the social development and can fully serve as peculiar indicators of epochal changes.

The author believes that the study of a connection between the historical process or social-historical activity of the mankind and a level of Sun’s activity, which was performed by A. Chizhevsky at the beginning of the XX century, is methodologically necessary for the analysis of epochal changes. Having established the direct connection, the researcher found no exception beginning from 500 BC. We only remark that, according to Chizhevsky, not every“maximum” of the solar activity induces a peculiar “maximum”of the historical activity. To realize the last, it is necessary the presence of appropriate internal (in author’s opinion, social-economic, political, and, we add, spiritual) preconditions. Of important are ideas on the cyclic character of psychical development of a man since it is one of the main elements of the social structure. In particular, it is worth to note the theoretical-practical generalizations by D. Feldshein. Basing on the occupational approach (S.  Rubinshtein, O. Leont’ev, A. Brushlinsky, et al. ) and age periodization of psychical development of a personality in ontogenesis (D. El’konin) which were develop in the framework of psychology, This researcher proved the cyclic (periodic) character of changes in the psychical structure of a personality and, respectively, in the psychological structure of activity, where its communicative and objective plans are alternatively actualized. I am sure that, by generalizing this idea on the theoretical basis mentioned above in the spirit of the anthroposociogenetic approach, it is quite rightfully to consider radical social changes in the context of societal processes, conditions, and features, which are realized within the limits of a unit epochal historical cycle. Indeed, the social history is composed from sequentially realized epochal historical cycles.

The above-presented and other aspects of the proposed basic conception are published in the article“Development of Ukraine: macrosocial approach [in Ukrainian] // Viche. – 1996. – No. 1. – P.  39-49. A. Yu. Martynov will report about all this in more details. As for the general scheme of organization of the IP, we start from the necessity to distinguish two aspects of the work. One of them is related to development of the basic sociological conception, which is elaborated nowby A. Yu. Martynov. B. O. Chechnev and I will also take part indevelopment of the methodological foundation of the project. We also hope for a running participation of each of the members of the working group as experts in elaboration of the methodological basis of the IP. To the end to ensure the principle of openness of the IP, the authors plan a special stage of approbation and expansion of the information about the basic conception by means of its publication as a separate edition (in Ukrainian, Russian, and English), as articles in the domestic sociological journal of the Institute of Sociology of the NAS of Ukraine and others, in Russian and Polish social-political journals, and on the special site (devoted to the project) in the Internet. We hope that such measures allow us to optimize the content of the basic conception and stimulate wide interdisciplinary (in the field of social and humanitarian sciences) practical investigations. Openness of the project and a “free”access to the work on its tasks do not remove the possibility to deepen into special applied studies. Thus, we foresee the organizational promotion to various theoretical and practical works in the field of disciplines of the social and humanitarian trends. In particular, we expect that every member of the working group on development of the IP will prepare some applied variant of the basic conception and will carry out the proper investigation. The last can be performed by the very member of the working group directly and with attraction of other participants, persons working for doctor’s degree and post-graduates, students and lecturers, representatives of policy, economy, science, culture, and education. In the course of the basic conception of cyclic social development, as an object of special studies, one can take the development of separate social (including state ones) institutions. It is quite possible to study the cycles of development of policy, economy, science (natural or humanitarian one), education, literature, arts, sport, etc. The working group of the project takes in hands the obligation to coordinate such investigations and to promote a wide clarification of the results obtained within the frameworks of the project.

    The working group is planning:

1. To carry out a wide discussion of the basic conception of the IP “Social development AD as an object of the sociology of history (sociology of social changes)”.

2. To solve the problem of organization of the special web-site in the Internet, concerning the IP.

3. To prepare for publication the basic conception of the IP “Social development A. D. as an object of the sociology of history (sociology of social changes)”.

    QUESTIONS:

Salamatov V. –How can we take into account the contents of specific notions ? For example, in the cross cultural studies by the west-European criteria, Ukraine is a quite collectivist country. But here (in Ukraine), all say about the individualism of Ukraine’s society.

Afonin E. –By societal (macrosocial or system-wide) criteria and ideas of cyclicity which consist the base of our project, Ukraine of the soviet period was characterized by such a societal quality as“executiveness, which define its behavior on the whole as “collectivist”, indeed. The corresponding social normative reveals itself at all aspects of life of the population of the soviet Ukraine, stimulating the people to sacrifice. “First, think about the Motherland and then about yourselves” –we repeated by choosing a profession or an example to imitate and by estimating himself or surrounding persons. By basing on the results of the comparative analysis, one can even state that collectivism was manifested in Ukraine even more than in Russia. A good proof of this assertion is related to the widespread opinion known at that time that Ukraine was the first among the other republics of the USSR (first of all, in comparison with Russia and Belorussia) in developing the all-people initiative upon the fulfillment of recurrent decisions of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of the USSR.

Now, the post-totalitarian Ukraine is attracted to the other social dimensionality, to the other social quality. The question is the“intentionality”, whose manifestations are perceived by the ordinary consciousness, in fact, as individualism. These social normative are adequate to the formula specularly opposite to that presented above: “State is strong with strong citizens”. New societal qualities are established by means of nonlinear social changes, creating the so-called transient condition of th society which is characterized, for a certain time, by a fluctuation– oscillations between two normative states defined above. Thus, it is quite justified that a west observer finds Ukraine as a “collectivist” country, and a domestic one as an “individualist” one. Salamatov V. –I say about a different thing. The semantics of the same notions changes from one culture to another, therefore, we may meet a double and even triple context in the context of a study. Hence, it would be methodologically expedient to start from traditions of the Moscow school of logic and to consider specific notions only in the context. As known, we cannot establish societal characteristics of, e. g. , the Trypillya culture.

Afonin E. –First, the approach accepted in this study allows, in principle, one to retrospectively define societal characteristics of any culture including the Trypillya one. I do not say that it is a simple task. To make this, we need a representative objective evidence, so to say, “traces” of the proper culture. Second, the definition of societal characteristics of a modern social object is based, in our approach, on the universal, integral standardized, symbolic model, in which the mechanism of autocorrection is inherent, i. e. , the ability to correct the used symbolic model with regard for natural geographical peculiarities of a specific cultural environment irrespectively of the desire of an experimenter. In other words, the apparatus complex, which is developed by us and will be utilized in the study, immanently involves the requirements of the Moscow school of logic.

In our opinion, the more serious difficulty for our investigation is its financial neediness. In fact, already at the first stage of study, we must perform the very important specific measurements of societal characteristics on the representative sampling (about 50 countries), defined in the project. These data and appropriate chronological tables allow us to reconstruct historical cycles of the countries of the sampling, region, and civilization on the whole. A total cost of derivation of the basic empiric material, by the estimates of the“Gellap-International”company, equals about 0. 4 mln USD. But we hope to leave this situation with the help of an alternative procedure of measurement by using the Internet. Salamatov V. –The comparative analysis should be performed with minimum of ideological (political) loads.

Afonin E. –The object of our analysis leaves the frameworks of political analysis since the societal level is an integral level of analysis of a holistic object, in which the political aspect emerges as a component.

    HEARD:

2.  On the conception of IP “Social development AD as an object of the sociology of history (sociology of social changes)”.

Martynov A. presented the basic conceptual idea of the IP “Social development AD”. In particular, by characterizing the actuality of the project, he emphasizes that the mankind encounters the problems of globalization of transformational processes on the boundary of the third millennium A. D. under conditions of the planetary crisis. There appears the world economic system which influences the development of not only separate regions but the whole civilization. Ecological and demographic threats are strengthening, and wars for the redistribution of resources (natural, energetic, biological, cultural, informational, etc. ) become a reality in the process of political, economic, and social changes, which are a manifestation of the essence of historical development of countries, continents, and the mankind.

In the context of the mentioned social changes and the strengthening of nonpredictability of behavior of subjects of the historical process, there arises the urgent need in harmonization of the existing ideas as for the historical development, search for new approaches, methodologies, and models for analysis and forecast, which would be adequate to the historical call. To the basis of conceptual construction of authors’ approach, the following ideas are put: The development of the nature and natural processes, including psychical processes in a person and social-historical ones, has a cyclic character. Social activity is an important categorial element of the social-historical analysis (S. Rubinshtein, L. Vygotsky, O. Leont’ev, A. individual and Brushlinsky, et al. ). According to the psychological structure of social activity, thehierarchy of its two main plans [objective and communicative ones (D.  El’konin, D. Feldshtein, et al. )] periodically changes in the process of its development. Each of them fulfills, in turn, the functions of a purpose and a means.

Global social changes are a result of the integral interaction of the political, economic, and natural factors (P. Sorokin, A. Chizhevsky, L.  Gumilev). In cyclic constructions, the synchronization of the maxima of their manifestation leads, in fact, to transformational social changes. Society as an subject of the history and civilization passes a large vital cycle in its development. The historical genesis of a socium is, in fact, the realization of epochal cycles, and each of them is composed from two normative and two transformational periods. The first epochal period“involution”is generally characterized by reducing the social processes in space, the relative simplification of a social structure, and the leading role of traditionalism. A historical task of the“involutionary”period is the organic mastering of societal characteristics acquired by the society in the previous period of development. Such a traditional society is a society of the“closed”type. It has own social normatives and mechanisms for support of a stable condition. The degree of freedom of an individual in such a society is limited by the influence of a collective. In the social-psychological relation, the emotional-sensitive behavioral psychotype of personalities becomes defining. The second normative period, “evolution”, is characterized by development of social processes in space and the complication of a social structure. The innovative activity of citizens, which is based on a growth of freedom of individuals and the objective-cognitive component in the psychological structure of personalities, becomes the leading tendency. The principal feature is the stability of changes. Transient periods of social development are characterized by historical phases opposite by the direction of changes: “revolution” and “co-evolution”. In particular, “revolution”is a radical qualitative overturn of the whole social structure of the society. It creates the mechanism of transformational transition from one normative condition of“evolution” to other normative condition “involution”. All this is simultaneously connected with a radical change of societal characteristics. “Revolution”sums up, conditionally saying, the previous historical epoch (cycle) and begins a new one. “Co-evolution” is a phase transition from the normative period of “involution” to the normative period of “evolution”. This transition is realized in the frameworks of one epochal cycle. Therefore, one observes only a change of the“vector” of social development in this case. The scheme of universal epochal cycle can be presented in the following form: “revolution” – “co-evolution” – “evolution” - “revolution”. We note that, in the frameworks of certain subsequently performed epochal cycles, three groups of global contradictions forming the anthroposociogenetic contents of social development are solved. The question is the contradiction between scientific and religious consciousnesses, which plays the role of a“spring”defining the dynamism of the initial cycle of social development. Against the background of the solved contradiction, there arises a contradiction, not less powerful, between legal consciousness and moral. Just this pivotal contradiction is solved at the epoch of the industrial and post-industrial societies. The newest history, which is opened before the mankind in the nearest future, will be developed under the influence of a new global contradiction between political and ordinary consciousnesses. Prior to the derivation of a comprehensive empiric information, the construction of the presented scheme is still hypothetical basically, though the available separate empiric data make it rather promising.

    SPOKE:

Afonin E. –There exist attempts to describe social changes through economic and political changes and processes. However, up to now, the transient period of social development bears threats and gives a lot of unexpected surprises to us. Up to now, there is no such tool which would allow one to attain an adequate comprehension of the essence of transient processes. The social science is unable, on the whole, to cover all the completeness of these changes. At the same time, it asserts a growth of the role of a subject in the transient period of social development. In our opinion, it would be correct to state that different transient processes are accompanied by a strengthening of the role of different subjects. In particular, the role of subjects-individuals increases during a“revolution”. This can be clearly traced for the revolutions of 1905-1917, when, conditionally saying, the cohort of revolutioners available at that time exceeded the demand for them. Thus, the high“competition”generated strong personalities. A completely opposite pattern is observed during a transformation (“co-evolution”). In this case, the role of the subject-socium is enhanced. Just for these reasons, the TV-programs of the Russian journalist Pozner“We”, having generated a series of programs with large groups of participants as acting persons, attained the high popularity in the current period of co-evolution in Russia and Ukraine. In Ukraine, these programs are: “Taboo”, “Karaoke on a square”, “Morning Star”, “Epicenter”, etc. More often reveals the phenomenon “we” in the political life of the country (political union “We”, “parliamentary majority”, etc. ). To a certain extent, we can refer two types of deformations of the space-time continuum to peculiar regularities accompanying two types of transient processes. During“revolution”, there occurs a deformation of these structures to the direction of the future, whereas they deform in the opposite direction, in the past, during“co-evolution”. All this requires a verification with empiric material. In our opinion, as a constructive methodological principle of the chosen approach, we would take the positions of the theory of Chizhevsky concerning the influence of the solar activity on social-historical processes. But, as emphasized, this rule is satisfied only under the presence of relevant social-political, economic, and spiritual preconditions.

Now we possess the objective data of systematic observations of the solar activity during 23 cycles, every of which covers 12 years. With the purpose to use this information in the realization of the project, we plan to attach researchers of the astronomic observatory of T. Shevchenko Kyiv University. On the processing of empiric indices, we shall employ the comparative analysis. It brightly demonstrates the relevancy of the hypothesis on different levels of complexity of the social structures of“involutionary” and “evolutionary” societies. For example, in countries suffered from the “Great Depression”, the number of social roles is about 70, 000. Whereas we see only 30, 000-40, 000 ones in our domestic space. I suppose that the specially developed system of empiric indices allows us to verify the principal idea of cyclicity of the social development.

Salamatov V. – Really, this can be described in Durkheim’s terms. The similar studies already exist. Afonin E. –To refine, I should like to add that this approach will be realized with utilization of specific empiric indices and their dimensionalities. Thus, it will not be limited by the social-philosophical analysis.

Andrii Yur’evych, what orienting points can be taken for a period, which would be convenient for the beginning of a study of subjects of the history ? From the moment of the creation of a state or earlier ?

Martynov A. –We must find an optimum variant. Among possible variants, we select the following: pre-state formation, a certain community, or a state. The substantial complexity is presented by the problem of determination of the age of an historical subject. I recall that there is no zero year in the era“from Christmas ”. The date of Christmas was defined by Dionysus the Little in 525 AD. The third millennium will begin according to the chronological scale from January 1, 2001, but, according to the astronomical scale, it is customary to take the first year of our era as the zero one. Respectively, the third millennium will begin on January 1, 2000.

There exist the methodological problems of interrupted cycles in the development of historical subjects. For example, we mention the period from 1654 till 1991 in the native history. The analogous situation exists in countries, former colonies (Africa, South-East Asia, etc. ). That is, there are many exactly historical methodological problems.

Ryabiko V. –The problem is both interesting and complicated. Thus, the very approach will be mainly formed in the course of investigation.

Kokoshyns’kyi O. –Possibly, the methodological reasons should be developed by sociologists. Already now, it is expedient to form the appropriate groups of researchers for study of each of the applied problems of this complex investigation. Malyshko M. –By passing from the global level to a local one, I already see a certain block of legal problems in the project.

Right is a written thing, and, therefore, I am in anxiety about that we cannot understand, for example, China traditions. I also think about the problem of practical results of the project. What can they be ? At the last time, I am engaged with interpretation of Nostradamus’predictions. One can analyze post factum, but to make prognosis is a difficult thing.

Afonin E. – In the transient condition, the society “lives through”institutional changes, social structures are washed out, social ties become weaker, and the hierarchy of factors defining the mechanisms of reproduction of social structures is broken. In addition, we observe a“washing out”of cause-effect connections, which lie in the foundation of the rational scientific method. Thus, scientific methods are not always adequate in the period of transformation. What can ensure the prognostic functions of the state administration under such conditions ? As is known, science acts in situations where just the cause-effect character of connections in the social structure is conserved.

It is obvious that a global study, similar to our one, should be constructed on the principles of synthesis of the ancient and scientific knowledge, methods, and methodologies. It is the integration of the traditional and the innovative that presents the means which is able to give adequate results under conditions of the transient period of social development.

Chechnev B. – The study can give an unexpected result. It is possible that the persons who are present here came to agreement to meet one thousand years ago. While studying large cycles, it is important to regard for esoteric knowledge. We stand in front of the period of a global discontinuity, which can be compared with the destruction of Atlantis. In the period of 1992-2012, there occurs the termination of cosmic evolutionary cycles: 26, 000, 12, 000, 9, 000, 6, 000, and 2, 000 years. In this connection, it is worth to note the coincidence of calendars. For example, the Celtic and Maya calendars name the year of 2012 as that when time will terminate. After this, a new global evolutionary cycle will begin. The Bible says: there will be a new Earth and a new sky. It is necessary to define ourselves in methodological questions. That the academic rationality considers as a violation is removed by the God’s harmony. Our time can be define as a closed wheel. This is like a snake biting its tail. Buddhists, for example, find the way out of this situation in nirvana, and Christians in practice.

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